2003 Master Class – Gerald Appel

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Master Class with Gerald Appel 

at the January 2003 Caribbean Traders’ Camp

Session 1

Market Indices and Chart Formations

• 1.  NASDAQ Composite and Current Volatility
• 2.  The Long Term Moving Average Channel of NASDAQ
• 3.  MACD Patterns of the S & P 500 Threatening to Break Long Term Downtrend
• 4.  NASDAQ /NYSE Index Relative Strength Favors Nasdaq – Bullish
• 5.  Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 1
• 6.  Bullish and Bearish Chart Patterns 2
• 7.  Angle Changes
• 8.  T-formations
• 9.  NASDAQ Composite T-Formations
• 10. Andrew’s Pitchfork

Session 2

Moving Average Convergence-Divergence

• 1.   Illustration of MACD Concept
• 2.   Introducing the Signal Line
• 3.   The Basic Buy and Sell Signal
• 4.   Using Divergences to Recognize the Reliable Signals
• 5.   Further Examples of Divergences
• 6.   Comparing MACD to a Price Momentum Oscillator
• 7.   Comparison of MACD and RSI
• 8.   Different MACD’s for Buy and Sell Signals
• 9.   MACD during a Strong Market Uptrend
• 10. MACD during a Strong Downtrend
• 11. Treasury Bonds, MACD, and a Strong Uptrend
• 12. The Stop-loss Signal for an Unsuccessful Trade
• 13. Using Trendlines to Confirm Buy and Sell Signals
• 14. Long-Term MACD Signals – The Start of a Bull Market
• 15.  A Long Bull Market – Then the Crash
• 16. Using Monthly MACD to Define Very Major Trends
• 17. Using Time Cycles to Confirm MACD Signals
• 18. Using Time Cycles – 2nd Example
• 19. When MACD Does Not Provide Timely Signals
• 20. Four Stages of MACD and the Market Cycle
• 21. The 1998 Bottom
• 22. A Bull and then a Bear Market
• 23. Catching the Lows – the 1984 bottom
• 24. A Second Example of Bottom Finding
• 25. A Final Example of  Bottom Finding
• 26. Bear Market Rally, 2001 – 2002

Session 3

Riding the Market:  Strategies to Stay on the Right Side of Market Trends

• 1.   Summary
• 2.   Drawdown Illustrated
• 3.   Some Risk-Adjusted Performance Measures (Higher = Better)
• 4.   “Normal” Risks for Various Investments (not worst cases)
• 5.   Basic Risk Control Strategies
• 6.   Core Portfolio – Designed to Minimize 1–year Losses
• 7.   Four Parts of the Portfolio
• 8.   Core Portfolio Performance History
• 9.   Minimum Risk Portfolio
• 10. Core Portfolio at Vanguard
• 11. Core Portfolio with ETF’s
• 12. Concept of Relative Strength
• 13. Example of Relative Strength Analysis: NYSE Composite Rises Faster when NASDAQ is Strong
• 14. Large Cap Value/Growth Model
• 15. SVX Divided by SGX (monthly)
• 16. Performance of SVX/SGX Model since 1994
• 17. Average Performance of Large Cap Value Mutual Funds vs. Large Cap Growth Mutual Funds since 1962
• 18. Large Cap Value Divided by Large Cap Growth
• 19. Large Cap versus Small Cap Model
• 20. S & P 500 Divided by S & P 600 (monthly)
• 21. Performance of S & P 500/SML Model since 1995
• 22. S & P 500 Index vs. Average Small Cap Mutual Funds since 1979
• 23. S & P 600/Cash Timing Model Rules
• 24. S & P Small Cap/Cash Timing Model
• 25. S & P 600/Cash Model Results
• 26. Interest Rates and Stocks
• 27. Stocks and Interest Rates
• 28. Results: Rates and Stocks, 1962 – 2002
• 29. Avoid Sales Loads
• 30. How is Your Fund Doing?
• 31. Mutual Funds vs S & P 500

Session 4

Four Presentations

A – Analyzing the Stock Market with Moving Average Trading Bands

• 1.   Basic Concept of Moving Average Trading Channel
• 3.   Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading Channel (NASDAQ Composite, Daily)
• 3.   Different Phases within the Moving Average Trading Channel (NYSE Composite, monthly)
• 4.   Long-Term Weekly Chart –NYSE Index 21-Week Average, 6% bands
• 5.   Moving Average Channels in a Flat Market Period – 1991-1992

B – Volatility Peaks and Major Market Bottoms

• 6.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1970 – 1979
• 7.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1980-`1989
• 8.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility, 1990-1999
• 9.   The NASDAQ Composite and Historical Volatility,2000-2002
• 10. Peak Volatility, Subsequent Market Movement

C – The 4 Pillars of Investment Success – Long-Term Growth with Greater Safety

• 11. Investment Strategies for Uncertain Times
• 12. Why Safer Stock Funds Work Better
• 13. Avg % Gain in Winning Months – Avg % Loss in Losing Months Based on Volatility Groups
• 14. Gain Per Year, Based on Volatility Groups – 20 Years
• 15. Closed Drawdowns Based on Volatility Groups
• 16. Fund Rotation Strategy – Performance by Performance Rank

D – The Power of NASDAQ

• 17. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1970-1973
• 18. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1980-1984
• 19. NASDAQ Composite – NASDAQ/NYSE Minus 10 Week Moving Average, 1997-2002
• 20. NASDAQ Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs. NASDAQ buy and Hold – NYSE Composite When NASDAQ is Dominant vs. NASDAQ buy and Hold
• 21. NASDAQ Relative Strength Summary
• 22. Relative Strength with Intermediate Monetary Filter

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